Vol. 120 No. 1 (2026)
Research Papers

Peak discharge estimation in data-scarce regions: a comparative study of methods for Syrian ungauged basins

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  • Emtethal Mariam,
  • Andrea Petroselli
Emtethal Mariam
Department of Civil Engineering, Damascus University, 1000 Damascus, Syria
Andrea Petroselli
Department of Agriculture and Forest Sciences (DAFNE), Tuscia University, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/jaeid-18501

Published 2026-06-29

Keywords

  • COSMO4SUB,
  • Data Scarcity,
  • EBA4SUB,
  • Flood Estimation,
  • Rainfall-Runoff Modeling,
  • Syria,
  • Ungauged Basins
    • ...More
    Less

How to Cite

Mariam, E., & Petroselli, A. (2026). Peak discharge estimation in data-scarce regions: a comparative study of methods for Syrian ungauged basins. Journal of Agriculture and Environment for International Development (JAEID), 120(1), 209–228. https://doi.org/10.36253/jaeid-18501

Copyright (c) 2026 Emtethal Mariam, Andrea Petroselli

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

Accurate estimation of peak discharges in small, ungauged basins is critical for flood risk management, particularly in developing countries where hydrometeorological data are scarce. This study compares empirical/conceptual methods (Fuller’s formula, Rational Method), event-based models (EBA4SUB), and continuous modeling (COSMO4SUB) across three Syrian catchments. Results show that empirical approaches are highly sensitive to parameter selection and often underestimate peak discharges, while event-based models, though more flexible, remain influenced by user-defined assumptions such as hyetograph shape and antecedent moisture conditions. The COSMO4SUB continuous modeling approach provides a robust alternative, reducing subjective choices and better representing physical catchment processes, including soil saturation, runoff generation, and temporal rainfall variability. These features make COSMO4SUB particularly suitable for data-scarce environments, offering a reliable tool for flood estimation, infrastructure design, and resilience planning.

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