Impact of climate variability on staple food crops production in Northern Togo

  • Essossinam Ali Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. University of Kara. Togo

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of climate variability on staple food crops production in the Northern regions of Togo using cereal and climate data over the period of 1972-2013. The linear mixed model and generalized linear mixed model are used. The results indicate that maize is the most vulnerable food crop affected by the inter-seasonal and the intra-seasonal variability of temperature and precipitation compared to sorghum and rice in the study areas. However, encouraging rain-fed water management would increase the rice production in the study areas. Policy towards the adoption of new technology to improve maize yields and cope with climatic risks is needed. The investment in rain-fed water management, promoting the use of drought-tolerant seeds and improvement of agro-meteorological information and their integration in farmers’ decision making are needed.

References

Abdulai A., 2018. Simon brand memorial Address: the challenges and adaptation to climate change by farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agrekon. DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2018.1440246

Abdullah H.M., Rahman M.M., 2015. Initiating rainwater harvest technology for climate change induced drought resilent agriculture: Scope and challenges in Bangladesh. Journal of Agriculture and Environment for International Development, 109(2): 189-208

AfDB, OECD, UNDP, 2016. African Economic Outlook (2016): Cities and Structural transformation. 15th Edition, African Economic Outlook. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/aeo-2016-en

Ahmed A., Diffenbaugh N., Hertel T., Lobell D., Ramankutty N., Rios A., Rohwani P., 2011. Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania. Global Environmental Change, 21: 46-55

Asada H., Matsumoto J., Rahman R., 2005. Impact of recent severe floods on rice production in Bangladesh. Geographical Review of Japan, 78(12): 783-793

Barnett B., Mahul O., 2007. Weather Index Insurance for agriculture and rural areas in lower-income countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics Association, 89(5): 1241-1247

Deressa T, Hassan R, Ringler C, Alemu T, Yusuf M., 2009. Determinants of farmers' choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Bassin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change 19: 248-255

Di Falco S., 2014. Adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan agriculture: assessing the evidence and rethinking the divers. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 41(1): 405-430

Egbendewe A.Y.G., Lokonon O.K.B., Atewemba C., Coulibaly N., 2017. Can intra-regional food trade increase food availability in the context of global climatic change in West Africa? Climate change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2083-0

Fan S., 1991. Effects of technological change and institutional reform on production growth in Chenese agriculture. Amercican Journal of Agricultural Economics 73(2):266-275

FAO, 2015. FAO Statistical Pokectbook: World food and Agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome.

Farmer J.D., Lafond F., 2016. How predicable is technological progress? Research Policy 45: 647-665

Gbetibouo A., Hassan R., 2005. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach. Global and Planetary change. 47:143-152

Guan K., Sultan B., Biasulti M., Baron C., Lobell D.B., 2015. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yield in West Africa. Geophysical Research Letters, 42: 8001-8010. DOI:10.1002/2015GL063877

Hansen G.S., Hill C.W.L., 1991. Are institutional investors myopic? A time series study of four technology-driven industries. Strategic Management Journal, 12:1-16

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution-INDC 2015. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) within the framework of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Republic of Togo.

IPCC, 2014. Climate change impacts, adaptations and vulnerability, contribution of working group 2 to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

Johnston R. Hoanh C., Lacombe G., Lefroy R., Pavelic P., Fry C., 2012. Improving water use in rainfed agriculture in the Greater Mekong Sub region. Summary report Colmbo, Sri Lanka. doi:105337/2012

Kang Y., Khan S., Ma X., 2009. Climate change impacts on yield, crop water productivity and food security: a review. Progress in natural Science, 19: 1665-1674

Kim K., and Chavas JP., 2003. Technological change and risk management: an application to the economics of corn production. Agricultural Economics 29: 125-142

Kukal M.S., Irmak S., 2018. Climate-driven crop yield and yield variability and climate change impacts on U.S. Great Plains agricultural production. Scientific Reports, 8: 3450. DOI:101038/s41598-018-21848-2

Kurukulasuriya, P., Mendelsohn, R., 2008. A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2, 1 1-23

Lamber D.K., 2014. Historical impacts of precipitation and temperature on farm production in Kansas. Journal of Agriculture and Applied Economics, 46(4): 439-456

Lobell D., Burke M., 2010. On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield response to climate change. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 150: 1443-1452

Lokonon B., Mbaye A., 2018. Climate change and adoption of sustainable land management practices in Niger Basin of Benin. Natural Resources Forum, 42:42-53

Maccarthy D.S., Vlek P.L.G., 2012. Impact of climate change on sorghum production under nutrient and crop residue management in semi-arid Region of Ghana: A modelling perspective. African Crop Science Journal, 20(2): 243-259

McSweeney C., New M., Lizcano G., Lu X., 2010. The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Improving the Accessibility of observed and projected Climate Information for Studies of Climate Change in Developing Countries” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 91: 157-166

Mendelsohn R., Dinar A., 1999. Climate Change, Agriculture and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter? World Bank Research Observer. 14(2): 277-293

Mendelsohn R., Nordhaus D., Shaw D., 1994. The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. American economic Review. 84(4): 753-771

Mindi L., Kougbenya L., 2012. Rendement de l’agriculture: l’excédent céréalier au Togo. African Development Bank, Revue Economique Mensuelle, No.4, Oct. 2012

Mishra A., Hansen J.W., Dingkuhn M., Baron C., Traoré S.B., Ndiaye O., Ward N.M., 2008. Sorghum yield prediction from seasonal rainfall forcasts in Burkina Faso. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology 148: 1798-1814

Mohammed A.M., Tena T., Singh P., Molla A., 2016. Modelling climate change impact on chickpea production and adaptation options in the semi-arid North-Eastern Ethiopia. Journal of Agriculture and Environment for International Development, 110(2): 377-395

Molua E., 2008. Turning up the heat on African agriculture: the impact of climate change on Cameroon’s agriculture. AfJARE, 2(1): 45-64

Motha R., Baier W., 2005. Impact of present and future climate change and climate variability on agriculture in temperate regions: North America. Journal of Climate Change, 70: 137-164

Ntagungira C., 2016. Food trade deficit poses a major challenge for Togo. African Development Bank. Available at: https://www.afdb.org/en/blogs/measuring-the-pulse-of-economic-transformation-in-west-africa/post/food-trade-deficit-poses-a-major-challenge-for-togo-15886/. Access in April 2018

Parry L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., Fischer G., 2004. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global environmental Change. 14: 53-67

Philips J., Cane M., Rosenzweig C., 1998. ENSO, seasonal rainfall patterns and simulated maize yield variability in Zimbabwe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 90: 39-50

Rosenzweig C., Parry M., 1994. Potential impacts of climate change on world food supply; Nature; 367: 133-138

Rowhani P., Lobell D., Linderman M., Ramankutty N., 2011. Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania. Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151: 449-460

Sim K., Sou S., Sam C., Chou P., Neang M., 2012. The impact of climate change on rice production in Cambodia. NGO Forum on Cambodia. DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3464.5122

Sultan B., Baron C., Dingkuhn M., Sarr B., Janicot S., 2005. Agricultural impacts of large-scale variability of West African Monson. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 128: 93-110

Tambo J., Abdoulaye T., 2013. Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of adaptations to climate change in the Nigerian Savanna. Regional Environmental Change 13(2): 375-388

Thomas R., 2008. Opportunities to reduce the vulnerability of dryland farmers in Central and West Asia and North Africa to climate change. Journal of Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment; 126: 36-45

Traore B., Corbeels M., Wijk M., Rufino M., Giller K., 2013. Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali. European Journal of Agronomy, 49: 115-125

Wossen T., Abdoulaye T., Alene A, Feleke S., Menkir A., Manyong V., 2107. Measuring the impacts of adaptation strategies to drought stress: The cases of drought tolerant maize varieties. Journal of Environmental Management, 203: 106-113

Yendoukoa L., 2008. Lutte antiérosive et contraintes socio-économiques dans la région des Savannes du Nord Togo. Sécheresse, 19(2): 103-114

Published
12-12-2018
How to Cite
Ali, E. (2018). Impact of climate variability on staple food crops production in Northern Togo. Journal of Agriculture and Environment for International Development (JAEID), 112(2), 321-342. https://doi.org/10.12895/jaeid.20182.778
Section
Research Papers